Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Yazata]

The one electric power plant in Gaza has stopped generating, reportedly because it is out of fuel. So the whole territory is dark.

The Israeli army is still preparing and still hasn't gone into Gaza. They have declared a rather large military zone around Gaza from which civilian population has been evacuated and army units are gathering and getting ready. Much of this area is the area that Hamas briefly held for a couple of days or areas close by that were evacuated.

I suspect that part of the reason why this zone exists is that when the Israeli army goes in and intense street fighting begins in the densely populated city, much of its population will come flowing out like toothpase out of a tube. Israel needs some way to contain them without their overwhelming southern Israeli communities.

I'm just speculating now, but talks might be underway with Egypt about opening the border with Egypt to civilian refugees from Gaza. The difficulty there is that while Cairo wants for political reasons to appear supportive of the Arab population of Gaza, they don't want them in Egypt fearing that they would be a destabilizing radical force.

So Egypt would want to contain them in northeast Sinai and have some plan for providing food and shelter to a million+ refugees. Egypt would probably insist on moving them on as soon as possible to somewhere else. If they can't/don't want to return to Gaza after Hamas is rooted out (the city will be wrecked and without services) then hopefully that's Iran or somewhere in the Arab world. But what I fear is that a big wave of migrants with radical terrorist sympathies and Hamas military training might be headed for the US and Europe. (Including some of the perpetraters of the recent atrocities.) America and the Europeans need to be prepared for that, because it's coming. (But predictably, our decadent governments won't be.)

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[Yazata]

Events this morning were heavy Israeli airstrikes on both Damascus and Aleppo airports in Syria, allegedly because Israel believed that Iran was flying in war material for use by Hezbollah and Hamas. Both airports are reportedly out of action and civilian flights in and out have been canceled.

Iran isn't happy:

Iranian Foreign Minister's statements on Israel's actions in Gaza (as reported by Al Jazeera):

-"If Israel does not stop its attacks on civilians in Gaza, the region will face new situations."
-"Israel cannot impose a complete siege on Gaza, bomb civilians, and commit war crimes without a response."

Since Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria essentially operates as an extension of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, I expect that the "new situations" the Iranian FM speaks of will be opening up the expected northern front.

[Yazata]

The Iranian Foreign Minister's plane just landed in Beirut Lebanon.

A single Arab gunman entered a police station in Jerusalem and shot two police officers before he was shot and killed. The two police officers are alive, though one of them is said to be "severely" injured.

Pro-Palestinian demonstrations continue all over. Most of the participants appear to be Muslim immigrant populations.

The British RAF says it will soon start conducting surveillance flights over the eastern Mediterranean, presumably from the British bases in Cyprus.

And the British Royal Navy is sending two support ships, the RFA Argus, a 'primary casualty receiving ship' and the RFA Lyme Bay, a landing ship, to the eastern Mediterranean to support an evacuation of British citizens from Israel, should that become necessary.

Lyme Bay (British MOD photo)

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[Yazata]

The Israeli army apparently will be moving into Gaza city in a day or so. They have been dropping thousands of leaflets in northern Gaza, warning its civilian population to move to southern Gaza. That's hundreds of thousands of people. Huge traffic jams suggest that many Gazans are heeding the warning. It isn't clear whether Hamas is trying to prevent them from leaving. (They need their human shields.) Hamas rockets are still being fired at Israel from northern Gaza though.

Israeli troops have already been conducting some small probing actions into Gaza. In one instance they received intelligence that something of interest was in a particular building. So they sent in a team of special forces. There's danger that kind of thing might be intended to lure them into a trap, but this wasn't that. They discovered the deceased remains of Israeli soldiers killed last week and taken back into Gaza.

In the north there has been sporadic Hezbollah rocket firing into northen Israel. It's nothing like what Hezbollah could do full-force though. It appears that Hezbollah is still preparing for a big offensive, assuming that one is coming.

Syrian media are reporting that fighters from the Iranian armed and funded Iraqi Shi'ite Popular Mobilization Forces are passing through Syria to join Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. (They are all foreign operations branches of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.)

The US State Department is preparing to evacuate Americans from Israel. They have posted this advisory:

Israel: The situation in Israel is still unpredictable; mortar and rocket fire may take place without warning. Commercial flights are available but extremely limited. Some U.S. citizens have been successful departing Israel into Jordan via the border crossings, including Allenby Bridge. We encourage you to take advantage of those options if possible.

The U.S. government is facilitating transportation for U.S. citizens to leave Israel by air or sea. Chartered transportation will be to nearby safe locations, not back to the United States. You will not be able to choose your destination or mode of transportation – we will assign you to the next available departure.

U.S. citizens who wish to depart with U.S. government assistance must express their interest via our crisis intake form at https://cacms.state.gov/s/crisis-intake. Do not fill out this form if you have already completed it.

USAF C-17 cargo planes are flying arms shipments into Israeli air bases. (They appear to be operating out of Sigonella in Italy.) Two Argentinian and a South Korean aircraft have departed Tel Aviv, evacuating their citizens from Israel.

A British RAF Boeing P-8 maritime patrol aircraft is currently operating over the eastern Mediterranean south of Cyprus and west of Lebanon, probably trying to listen in on Hezbollah communications.

[Yazata]

A USAF RC-135 Rivet Joint electronic intelligence aircraft using the call-sign Olive42 is flying a racetrack pattern over the Mediterranean west of Gaza. It appears to be operating out of Chania in Crete, near the big Souda Bay naval base. Presumably it's doing much the same thing as the RAF P-8 yesterday.

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[Magical Realist]

"The Pentagon has ordered a second aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean near Israel to deter Iran or Hezbollah from joining the Israel-Hamas conflict, according to U.S. officials.

A senior US official and a US official told ABC News that the USS Eisenhower carrier strike group will be ordered to the eastern Mediterranean to join the USS Gerald R Ford carrier strike group that arrived there earlier this week and is in international waters off of Israel.

A Pentagon spokesperson did not immediately have a comment on the development.

Senior U.S. officials have said publicly this week that the presence of the USS Ford carrier strike group in the eastern Mediterranean and the addition of more U.S. Air Force fighter jets to the region was intended to show the U.S. commitment to Israel and to serve as a deterrent to Iran and Hezbollah not to get involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict."----
https://abcnews.go.com/International/exc...0officials.

[Yazata]

Edit: MR just beat me to posting about this...

The USS Dwight D Eisenhower carrier strike group, including a Ticonderoga class cruiser and 3 Arleigh Burke class destroyers has just left Norfolk Virginia, headed for the Eastern Mediterranean where it will join up with the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group and Standing NATO Maritime Group 2 (consisting of allied naval ships) which are already already there.

Given that Hamas and Hezbollah don't even have navies, it isn't clear what this massive battle fleet is intended to do. Perhaps to keep the Iranian navy or other adventurers away. The 150-200 naval warplanes might deter the Iranian airforce as well.

[Syne]

I assume the battle fleet has aircraft and sea to land missiles. Both useful in supporting the IDF and suppressing further terrorist attacks.

[Yazata]

Reports are coming in that the Israeli army's advance into Gaza, which was planned for this weekend, has been pushed back several days because of an incoming storm. The talk is that the cloudy weather and poor visibility would make aircraft and drone operations more difficult than they like.

The US State Dept has announced that current numbers are 29 US citizens killed in last weekend's Hamas attack into Israel, with 15 more Americans missing and presumed kidnapped into Gaza.

[Syne]

After the IDF warning civilians to evacuate, Hamas is reportedly blocking Gazans from doing so. As usual, Hamas wants civilian human shields.