Coup in Niger

[Yazata]

The ECOWAS force activated today is something called the ECOWAS Standby Force. On paper it numbers ~6,000 soldiers, with command elements in both Nigeria and Senegal. It's intended to be a regional on-call force to respond to disasters, terrorism and (yes) coups. This force will have to be reinforced with aircraft (probably from Nigeria).

The Niger army numbers some 30,000 on paper but probably more like 10,000 in real life. The Niger army has been receiving training by the US army, but are largely equipped with small arms and drive around in small pickup trucks. The Niger air force has a handful of general aviation type planes, but no significant combat air power. What's more, the army's support for the new junta might not be all that strong.

The junta knows all this and have been calling for armed civilians to turn out to defend the revolution. The coup seems to have received quite a bit of support from mobs of militants, but it remains unclear how many of those militants will be willing to actually fight for it.

[Yazata]

It isn't clear what is happening today.

There are indications that Niger might have reversed themselves decided not to break diplomatic relations with the US and France.

There are also indications that Niger, the US and France are conducting talks. There's talk of disagreements, not just between the US/France and Niger (to be expected) but between the US and France as well.

Edit Representatives of ECOWAS are participating in the talks too. It sounds to me like the US, France and ECOWAS are demanding that the rebel junta "stand down" and effectively surrender. Not surprisingly, so far there's no progress to report.

[Yazata]

ECOWAS says that they have decided on a date to begin their military operation, but haven't revealed it (for obvious reasons).

Not coincidentally, the US says it has plans to evacuate Base 201 should that become necessary. (I think that the US is more likely to assist ECOWAS.)

And speculation is that the US-France disagreement was because Macron was pushing harder for military action against the Niger junta, while Biden was less willing to resort to military options. I don't know how much to believe that. Both the US and France have about 1,000 soldiers in Niger, there to fight a little unpublicized war against Islamic extremists in the Sahel region.

[Yazata]

There are reports of military preparations by both sides. There's talk of military movements in Nigeria, but no details. Niger has been more open and has produced video of military aircraft from Mali and Burkina Faso, Niger's allies, arriving in Niger's capital. Visible in the video were Niger's single C-130 transport plane, a Mi-24 attack helicopter, and several Super Tecano light attack planes. They weren't pictured, but the most abundant aircraft on the Niger side and that of its allies is an unknown number of Turkish made Bayraktar TB-2 drones, which have already shown their worth in Ukrainian hands.

In related news that ties in with the Ukraine war, the Il-76 pictured below (photographed earlier in Russia) belonging to Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry (sort of a para-military version of America's FEMA) flew into Bamako, the capital of Mali, carrying what was said to be a "high ranking Wagner official".

It turned out to be none other than Yevgeny Prigozhin who released only his second video statement since the rebellion, saying that Wagner was in Mali to fight ISIS and Al Quaida "bandits" and called for fighters to volunteer. He said that Wagner is in Africa increasing the power of Russia "on all continents" and is carrying out the "tasks we have been given and the promises we made". (Which might refer to his post-rebellion conversations with Putin.)

There's no indication at this point that Wagner will be involved in the impending war with ECOWAS. They appear to be there to fight the Islamist rebels who had succeeded in taking over half of Mali before a French led military intervention pushed them back into the desert. But France is withdrawing from that operation after a change of government in Mali, and Mali badly needs somebody to fill the vacuum.

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[Yazata]

The much vaunted ECOWAS attack on Niger never happened.

And very belatedly, the United States has announced that it's pulling its estimated 1,000 soldiers out of Base 201. The new Nigerien government (not to be confused with next door Nigeria) told the US to leave many months ago, but Washington DC ignored it because we don't recognize the new government.

And in other news, Reuters is reporting that Niger has just signed a $400 million memorandum of understanding with China, regarding development of Niger's Agadem oilfield.

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[Yazata]

French media is reporting that the Ivory Coast has agreed to host a US advanced base to house units recently evacuated from Niger.

And there are indications that facilities recently evacuated by Americans at the airport in Niamy (capital of Niger) are being occupied by Russians calling themselves the "Africa Corps", which seems to be the familiar Wagner Group, rebranded after the murder of Progozhin. Russia doesn't want the Wagner private army anywhere near Russia (where private armies are illegal). But they are too useful to disband entirely. So they are being assigned to Russian operations in Africa.