Coup in Niger

[Yazata]

A couple of days ago military from the "Presidential Guard" overthrew the President they were supposed to be protecting and assumed power.

This follows similar coups in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso. The regional grouping called ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) is threatening military action to reinstall the overthrown President. Since the only significant military power in ECWAS is Nigeria (not to be confused with Niger) this means a possible Nigerian incursion.

At which point Mali and Burkina Faso announced that if any foreign military forces attack Niger they will go to war as well against those forces. While Nigeria could probably handle the conventional armies of all three, Algeria has made a similar announcement. And Algeria is stronger than Nigeria.

While I don't really expect a regional African war to break out, these events are significant. France has been leading a small ongoing war in Mali and Niger against powerful Islamic militants that threaten all three countries. And now all three want French troops out. What's more, the United States spent more than $100 million to construct a large drone base in Niger called "Base 201". I assume the new leaders want the US out too.

https://www.voanews.com/a/africa_us-cons...78666.html

Adding spice to the situation is the fact that the coup in Niger appears to have been very pro-Russian. Mobs of local rioted outside the French embassy waving Russian flags. They were driven back by tear gas. As of today, the US says that it has no evidence of Russia or Wagner organizing the coup.

But whoever organized it, it looks like a whole group of West African countries has just swung from a French-led pro-Western position strongly supported by the US, towards alignment with Russia in the 'New Cold War'.

The UK Foreign Office has advised the handful of British citizens in Niger to shelter in place and give the British embassy contact information. There seem to be no British plans for a rescue operation and the Brits might be flying out with an ongoing French evacuation operation. Two French Air Force Airbus A-330's have flown from France to Niger. One is on its way back to Paris with some 250 French and other Europeans aboard. The second is still in the Niger capital. A third French Air Force A-330 left France, then started circling over the Mediterranean west of Sardinia, and then returned to France. Speculation is that either conditions on the ground had deteriorated, or Algeria had refused permission to cross their airspace (after having allowed the previous flights).

It's still unclear what, if anything, the US plans to do. I assume they will try to extract US military personnel. These are said to number upwards of 100, with an unknown number of drones, probably Reapers.

There's talk that radical militants are demanding that all foreigners in Niger be captured and held as hostages until France and the US agree to pull out entirely.

Street scene

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Things are changing rapidly. Algeria has just put out a new statement that they oppose the coup and will remain neutral if any hostilities break out.

[Yazata]

The US has announced that it has no plans to evacuate Americans from Niger.

And the US has announced that it has halted military cooperation with the Niger army. Updated figures indicate that the United States has some 1,100 military personnel in Niger. Most of them are located at "Base 201", with a few doing guard duty at the US embassy in the capital. Normally some of these troops would be out conducting training activities with the local army, but right now they are all engaged in base security.

Base 201 has a runway and I assume that the USAF can fly evacuation flights in there directly if the need arises.

(USAF photo of a C17 departing from Base 201.)

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[Yazata]

The French ambassador to Niger says that the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds Force flew to Niger last night.

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Meanwhile Senegal, the Ivory Coast and Benin have said that they will send troops to fight alongside Nigeria if ECOWAS authorizes military intervention. While Mali and Burkina Faso say they will fight alongside Niger.

The big question then is what France and the US do. If Iran sends in its revolutionary guards, it could change the likelihood of those 1,100 US troops at Base 201 getting involved on the side of ECOWAS.

Map by War_Mapper

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Pro-coup demonstration in the capital of Niger. Several Russian flags are prominently displayed.

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[Yazata]

Orders have gone out to the Nigerian air force to make preparations for operations over Niger.

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[Yazata]

The ruling junta in Niger has just announced that they are breaking off diplomatic relations with the United States, France and Nigeria.

[Yazata]

Commercial aircraft are being warned not to fly over Niger. Earlier today, the Niger junta closed Niger's airspace and threatened that any attempts to violate the country's airspace will be met with "vigorous and instantaneous response".

This is probably mostly bluster, since the Niger military has no known antiaircraft capabilities.

Despite the warning, there were indications today that a USAF C-17 transport had left Europe and was headed south across Algeria towards the international airport in the Niger capital. There's speculation that its mission is to evacuate US embassy staff, given that Niger broke diplomatic relations with the US and probably ordered its embassy out.

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And this went out over ACARS, kind of a text-messaging thing for commercial aircraft.

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Earlier, ECOWAS issued an ultimatum to restore the overthrown president by today, Sunday, or else. Whether that threat will come to anything remains in doubt.

In Nigeria, by far the most powerful of the ECOWAS militaries, there is little sign of mobilization near the Niger border. What's more, the Nigerian senate has voted against approving a military operation.

Representatives of ECOWAS have told reporters that they need more time to prepare a military operation. If it's launched now, it would have small likelihood of success. And the African Union has set its own ultimatum date a week from now. So it's believed that ECOWAS might wait for another week to conform to the African Union and give themselves more time to prepare.

[Yazata]

An Italian air force C-130 is inbound to the international airport, presumably to evacuate the Italian embassy staff.

Meanwhile, the ECOWAS deadline came and went with no visible preparations for a military operation. ECOWAS is now talking about holding a Thursday meeting to discuss what to do next. The biggest ECOWAS military power Nigeria seems to prefer a diplomatic approach. Without them, the rest of ECOWAS is too weak to do much. There's growing doubt that an ECOWAS military operation will ever happen.

(Acting) deputy US secretary of state Victoria Neuland visited Niger yesterday and spent two hours with some of the coup leaders (but not the new president) demanding that the overthrown president be reinstated. Predictably those discussions were described as "frank", diplo-speak for "irreconcilable differences/accomplished nothing". The US is threatening to cut off foreign aid.

An ECOWAS delegation is visiting today, but it will almost certainly come to nothing as well.

And the 1,100 US troops remain at Base 201. I believe that there are French soldiers in the country too. Talk is that the ECOWAS militaries are probably too weak to execute a cross-border operation unless the US and French forces do the heavy lifting for them. And there's little indication that the US or France want to use military force to pick a government for an African country. That would carry significant repurcussions across the continent and expose them to accusations of neocolonialism.

Internet rumors are saying that important elements of the Niger army aren't exactly thrilled by what's happening. They fear that all this turmoil will just weaken Niger in its battle with ISIS-style Islamic radicals. (Which is why the US and French soldiers are there in the first place.)

[Yazata]

Latest news: The ECOWAS delegation that was supposed to visit Niger today was refused entry into the country.

[Yazata]

Latest news: Several former members of the overthrown Niger government have announced the formation of something called (in French) the "Council of Resistance for the Republic". They demand the restoration of the overthrown government and say that they plan "actions".

It isn't clear what kind of "actions" they have planned, whether they are even inside Niger (as opposed to government officials who were in other countries at the time of the coup), or what kind of support they have in country. They are calling on the Niger army to arrest the junta, which might be associated with the rumors (above) that the army isn't entirely behind the coup.

There are also angry accusations on the internet that this CRR is the creation of some evil combination of ECOWAS, France and/or the CIA, designed to split the rebels who appear to be moving Niger in an anti-Western direction. That might just be angry talk or it might be true.

[Yazata]

The Thursday ECOWAS meeting is underway, and just minutes ago word emerged that a military operation has been approved by the alliance, to commence as soon as is practical. It's still unknown which military forces will participate.

And a US civilian-registered Beechcraft 300 King Air using the callsign 'State81' has taken off from the international airport in Niamy, the capital of Niger, apparently en-route to Base 201. The plane is registered to a company called 'Academy Resources LLC' which is believed by some to be a CIA front-company.

It's incorporated in Taos New Mexico, the only address given for it is the address of its registered agent. But despite having no visible existence apart from a business license, here it is flying in a country where war might be about to break out, that recently broke off diplomatic relations with the US, whose airspace is supposedly closed, en route to a US military facility that shows no sign of leaving. Things that make a person go, "hummm".

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